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内容简介:
With a foreword by Clifford Asness, this book is a one stop guide to measuring the expected returns of a range of investments to enable long term investors to better manage and balance their portfolio.
For any investor, understanding the expected rewards that markets offer is central to long–term investment success. The traditional paradigm for assessing expected returns has focussed on historical performance and asset class management. However, Antti Ilmanen contends that this approach to investment decision–making is too narrow in its asset class focus and in the inputs used for assessing expected returns. He challenges investors to broaden their perspectives in two ways:
Excess returns should be harvested from diverse sources. Strategy styles and risk factors, as well as asset classes, are sources of return, thus warranting three–dimensional analysis of investments.
Any investment′s return prospects should be judged in a way that incorporates all knowledge, including historical experience, financial and behavioral theories, and current market conditions, without being overly dependent on any one of these.
Beginning with comprehensive introduction and overview, Expected Returns goes on to analyze the historical record, give a roadmap of terminology, explore rational and behavioral theories, and look at alternative interpretations for return predictability. A series of case studies provide detailed analysis of assets (equity, bond and credit risk premia, as well as alternative asset classes), dynamic strategy styles (value, carry, momentum, volatility) and underlying risk factors (growth, inflation, liquidity and tail risks), before moving back to broader themes, including time–varying expected returns, and seasonal, cyclical and secular return patterns.
Concluding with a series of investment lessons, Expected Returns is the complete guide for the long–term investor, providing wide–ranging empirical evidence, and a platform for forecasting the expected returns of an investment portfolio for asset allocation and portfolio balancing purposes.
From the Inside Flap
Expected Returns is a one–stop reference that gives investors a comprehensive toolkit for harvesting market rewards from a wide range of investments. Written by an experienced portfolio manager, scholar, strategist, investment advisor and hedge fund trader, this book challenges investors to broaden their minds from a too–narrow asset class perspective and excessive focus on historical performance. Coverage includes major asset classes (stocks, bonds, alternatives), investment strategies (value, carry, momentum, volatility) and the effects of underlying risk factors (growth, inflation, illiquidity, tail risks). Judging expected returns requires balancing historical returns with both theoretical considerations and current market conditions. Expected Returns summarizes the state of knowledge on all of these topics, providing extensive empirical evidence, surveys of risk–based and behavioral theories, and practical insights.
"This is the best book on active management ever written – and it achieves that status without mentioning a single stock or bond by name. Anyone who performs the rigorous analysis Ilmanen describes – admittedly a neat trick, since the world′s most sophisticated investors struggle to do it successfully – will beat the market."
Laurence B. Siegel, Former Director of Research, The Ford Foundation
"Antti Ilmanen shows the way forward for the investment management profession in this remarkable book. In a comprehensive and impressive way, he combines financial theory, historical performance data and forward–looking indicators, into a consistent framework for assessing expected returns and risk. His approach is both scientific and practical, based on decades of studies and his own trading experience. With a touch of personal wisdom and humility, Ilmanen′s book is a fascinating and educational journey into the future of investment management."
Knut N. Kjaer, Founding CEO of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund/NBIM and former president of RiskMetrics Group
"Ilmanen′s wonderful book manages to be exquisitely readable while covering just about every aspect of the investment process. Filled with many, many fresh and useful insights. This volume deserves to be read and then kept close at hand – because it is sure to be needed again and again."
Martin L. Leibowitz, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley, and former CIO, TIAA–CREF
"Job one for any investor is to estimate asset class returns. For the first time, Antti Ilmanen has assembled into one volume all of the tools necessary for this task: for the working money manager, a unique treasure trove of analytical techniques and empirical evidence; for the academic, a comprehensive guide to the relevant academic literature; and for the consultant, a blinding light with which to illuminate performance. Expected Returns is destined to occupy the front shelves of investment professionals around the world."
William J. Bernstein, author of The Intelligent Asset Allocator, The Birth of Plenty, and A Splendid Exchange, and co–principal of Efficient Frontier Advisors
"Antti′s synthesis of experience and theory has given us a book which fills a major gap in the literature on investing. Amazing, but true, this is the first book dedicated to the critical and challenging task of estimating how much we should expect to earn on our investments. This illuminating book, teaming with valuable insights that have never before been gathered under one roof, cannot fail to make the reader a more successful and discerning investor."
Victor Haghani, Associate Lecturer, London School of Economics, and former founding partner of LTCM
"Ilmanen has written a thorough and detailed analysis of one of the central issues in investing."
Ken French, Heidt Professor of Finance, Dartmouth College
"Investors′ decisions should be evidence based. Antti Ilmanen assembles a global body of evidence, and interprets it with insight. Read this book and you will improve your understanding of the future."
Elroy Dimson, Emeritus Professor of Finance, London Business School
"If I could choose only one book on active management, I would choose Expected Returns. This book is extremely thorough and well researched, yet direct and to the point."
Roger G. Ibbotson, Professor in the Practice of Finance, Yale School of Management, and Chairman and CIO of Zebra Capital Management
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书籍介绍
With a foreword by Clifford Asness, this book is a one stop guide to measuring the expected returns of a range of investments to enable long term investors to better manage and balance their portfolio.
For any investor, understanding the expected rewards that markets offer is central to long–term investment success. The traditional paradigm for assessing expected returns has focussed on historical performance and asset class management. However, Antti Ilmanen contends that this approach to investment decision–making is too narrow in its asset class focus and in the inputs used for assessing expected returns. He challenges investors to broaden their perspectives in two ways:
Excess returns should be harvested from diverse sources. Strategy styles and risk factors, as well as asset classes, are sources of return, thus warranting three–dimensional analysis of investments.
Any investment′s return prospects should be judged in a way that incorporates all knowledge, including historical experience, financial and behavioral theories, and current market conditions, without being overly dependent on any one of these.
Beginning with comprehensive introduction and overview, Expected Returns goes on to analyze the historical record, give a roadmap of terminology, explore rational and behavioral theories, and look at alternative interpretations for return predictability. A series of case studies provide detailed analysis of assets (equity, bond and credit risk premia, as well as alternative asset classes), dynamic strategy styles (value, carry, momentum, volatility) and underlying risk factors (growth, inflation, liquidity and tail risks), before moving back to broader themes, including time–varying expected returns, and seasonal, cyclical and secular return patterns.
Concluding with a series of investment lessons, Expected Returns is the complete guide for the long–term investor, providing wide–ranging empirical evidence, and a platform for forecasting the expected returns of an investment portfolio for asset allocation and portfolio balancing purposes.
From the Inside Flap
Expected Returns is a one–stop reference that gives investors a comprehensive toolkit for harvesting market rewards from a wide range of investments. Written by an experienced portfolio manager, scholar, strategist, investment advisor and hedge fund trader, this book challenges investors to broaden their minds from a too–narrow asset class perspective and excessive focus on historical performance. Coverage includes major asset classes (stocks, bonds, alternatives), investment strategies (value, carry, momentum, volatility) and the effects of underlying risk factors (growth, inflation, illiquidity, tail risks). Judging expected returns requires balancing historical returns with both theoretical considerations and current market conditions. Expected Returns summarizes the state of knowledge on all of these topics, providing extensive empirical evidence, surveys of risk–based and behavioral theories, and practical insights.
"This is the best book on active management ever written – and it achieves that status without mentioning a single stock or bond by name. Anyone who performs the rigorous analysis Ilmanen describes – admittedly a neat trick, since the world′s most sophisticated investors struggle to do it successfully – will beat the market."
Laurence B. Siegel, Former Director of Research, The Ford Foundation
"Antti Ilmanen shows the way forward for the investment management profession in this remarkable book. In a comprehensive and impressive way, he combines financial theory, historical performance data and forward–looking indicators, into a consistent framework for assessing expected returns and risk. His approach is both scientific and practical, based on decades of studies and his own trading experience. With a touch of personal wisdom and humility, Ilmanen′s book is a fascinating and educational journey into the future of investment management."
Knut N. Kjaer, Founding CEO of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund/NBIM and former president of RiskMetrics Group
"Ilmanen′s wonderful book manages to be exquisitely readable while covering just about every aspect of the investment process. Filled with many, many fresh and useful insights. This volume deserves to be read and then kept close at hand – because it is sure to be needed again and again."
Martin L. Leibowitz, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley, and former CIO, TIAA–CREF
"Job one for any investor is to estimate asset class returns. For the first time, Antti Ilmanen has assembled into one volume all of the tools necessary for this task: for the working money manager, a unique treasure trove of analytical techniques and empirical evidence; for the academic, a comprehensive guide to the relevant academic literature; and for the consultant, a blinding light with which to illuminate performance. Expected Returns is destined to occupy the front shelves of investment professionals around the world."
William J. Bernstein, author of The Intelligent Asset Allocator, The Birth of Plenty, and A Splendid Exchange, and co–principal of Efficient Frontier Advisors
"Antti′s synthesis of experience and theory has given us a book which fills a major gap in the literature on investing. Amazing, but true, this is the first book dedicated to the critical and challenging task of estimating how much we should expect to earn on our investments. This illuminating book, teaming with valuable insights that have never before been gathered under one roof, cannot fail to make the reader a more successful and discerning investor."
Victor Haghani, Associate Lecturer, London School of Economics, and former founding partner of LTCM
"Ilmanen has written a thorough and detailed analysis of one of the central issues in investing."
Ken French, Heidt Professor of Finance, Dartmouth College
"Investors′ decisions should be evidence based. Antti Ilmanen assembles a global body of evidence, and interprets it with insight. Read this book and you will improve your understanding of the future."
Elroy Dimson, Emeritus Professor of Finance, London Business School
"If I could choose only one book on active management, I would choose Expected Returns. This book is extremely thorough and well researched, yet direct and to the point."
Roger G. Ibbotson, Professor in the Practice of Finance, Yale School of Management, and Chairman and CIO of Zebra Capital Management
精彩短评:
作者:鱼来 发布时间:2020-10-28 11:58:28
好唯心啊……
作者:Renco 发布时间:2018-05-17 22:08:59
又一个无私分享自己所得的高人。对于能够阅读大量文献的人来说这本书就是一张地图。它的目标读者群体很小,主要是有扎实学术训练又想拓展思路的基金经理。
作者:VG.SUIBIANDA 发布时间:2019-06-05 19:45:05
AQR大佬的科普书,站得高看得远系列。书中殷实的数据分析对过往很多经验主义提出不小的挑战,独立的思考,分析和判断在选管理人中是更加重要的。相比短期业绩,背景和理念更加重要,最好能够加一些哲学层次的思考,知道有所为有所不为,明确能力边界。这么想来,毛总的中庸之道、否极泰来也是不无道理,hah
作者:Eric 发布时间:2020-03-10 11:54:08
周末翻了一下第十章,简单谈了bond的credit spread为啥通常跟expected return差很多,尤其在long maturity时。提了一种可能的解释
作者:ζ 发布时间:2019-07-24 13:14:34
老板送的,豆瓣评价惊人,感觉过誉了。论文献的整理远比不上阿尔法经济学,话题野心很大,章节包罗了量化的各个方面。但每个ch就几个基础例子,很少深入。
作者:lolita83 发布时间:2017-12-03 21:02:39
作者开篇就说明此书适合想进一步学习的基金经理,操盘手,对于金融基础零知识的我来说显然内容太难。金融,心理学,编程果然是三大学校不教,但是对于实际生活算得上居家必备的科目。读到一半差点放弃,还好总算翻完了。对于各种投资方法,投资类型有学术型的分析和思考,对于实际操作的帮助只能看各人悟性。不过momentum策略居然是各种策略中的all time winner.IBD的服务还是有必要买的。
深度书评:
坚定信心,相信学术研究,相信实证结论,相信基础概率
作者:股市书虫 发布时间:2022-01-24 06:36:34
“关于投资研究的最佳期望,是更好理解而非完美理解”
作者:饭米米 发布时间:2021-10-01 23:35:12
大量基于历史数据的实证研究表明,在超长历史时期内,股票的投资收益率最高。如果投资者不在意收益波动,只需将头寸集中到股票资产即可——在不考虑风险的情况下,资产配置是没有意义的。而现实中,投资者难以忽视风险。首先,投资者的时间期限往往有限,且存在特定的流动性需求,这要求投资者尽量减少收益的波动性,以避免资产在需要用钱的时点恰好处于收益低点。其次,作为现代金融理论的基本假设,Markwitz均值-方差模型的基本思想是:同等预期收益情形下,投资者偏好风险更低的投资组合。因此资产配置需要同时考虑预期收益和风险两个维度,夏普比(Sharpe Ratio)也成为衡量资产表现的最常见指标。
金融危机后,市场对风险的讨论逐渐多于预期收益,主流资产配置模型和框架也开始向风险倾斜。最大化分散组合、风险平价组合等仅基于风险的配置策略成为投资者关注的焦点,通过让各类资产对投资组合的波动率贡献相等,使组合在经济周期不同阶段的收益波动更加平滑,“配置风险,而非配置资产”,成为现代资产配置理论的核心。然而,在风险年代讨论预期收益依然十分必要。一方面,长期来看,除了部分高度结构化和杠杆化的产品,被认为过于简化现实的常规资产定价模型(如Fama-French多因子模型)仍然成立。另一方面,作者认为,预期收益无需长期保持一致,08年金融危机和00年股灾期间的部分风险,更多反映了投资者错误估计的预期收益。从理论或实证上来看,金融危机中对风险和预期收益的讨论具有内在联系。
作者认为,机构投资者的传统准则过于关注历史业绩,对资产类别配置关注不足。研究配置策略的预期收益,应超越资产类别视角(股票、债券、另类投资等),需同时考虑系统性策略(价值型、利差型、动量型等)和风险因素(增长、通胀和流动性)。以上三个维度相互联系且有所重叠,如小盘比大盘股承受更多流动性风险,被动持有股票比被动持有债券更易受到经济增长缓慢的影响,而后者比前者面临更多通胀高于预期的风险,所以三种方法可以同时使用。从方法论来看,投资者判断预期收益主要基于历史数据、投资理论和框架、实时和前瞻性指标。
本书基于机构投资者和资产配置视角,提供了全面而详尽的预期收益分析框架,且涵盖了相关学术文献指引。同时,作者一直强调,不存在完美的研究或预测。如果说投资是认知的变现,最佳期望是更好理解而非完美理解。
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- 网友 谢***灵: ( 2024-12-13 04:17:49 )
推荐,啥格式都有
- 网友 潘***丽: ( 2024-12-27 19:04:32 )
这里能在线转化,直接选择一款就可以了,用他这个转很方便的
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很好。顶一个希望越来越好,一直支持。
- 网友 利***巧: ( 2024-12-09 04:59:59 )
差评。这个是收费的
- 网友 堵***格: ( 2024-12-09 12:45:36 )
OK,还可以
- 网友 瞿***香: ( 2024-12-25 19:23:47 )
非常好就是加载有点儿慢。
- 网友 游***钰: ( 2024-12-14 06:42:42 )
用了才知道好用,推荐!太好用了
- 网友 邱***洋: ( 2024-12-20 10:53:32 )
不错,支持的格式很多
- 网友 汪***豪: ( 2024-12-22 09:05:13 )
太棒了,我想要azw3的都有呀!!!
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