Applied Mergers And Acquisitions 9780471395058 pdf mobi txt 2024 电子版 下载

　　A comprehensive guide to the world of mergers and acquisitions

Why do so many MandA transactions fail? And what drives the success

of those deals that are consummated? Robert Bruner explains that

MandA can be understood as a response by managers to forces of

turbulence in their environment. Despite the material failure rates

of mergers and acquisitions, those pulling the trigger on key

strategic decisions can make them work if they spend great care and

rigor in the development of their MandA deals. By addressing the

key factors of MandA success and failure, Applied Mergers and

Acquisitions can help readers do this. Written by one of the

foremost thinkers and educators in the field, this invaluable

resource teaches readers the art and science of MandA valuation,

deal negotiation, and bargaining, and provides a framework for

considering tradeoffs in an effort to optimize the value of any

MandA deal. Applied Mergers and Acquisitions is part of a complete

suite of resources on MandA that includes a workbook and a CD-ROM

with additional spreadsheets. Robert F. Bruner, MBA, DBA

(Charlottesville, VA), is the Distinguished Professor of Business

Administration at the Darden School at the University of Virginia

and Executive Director of the Batten Institute. He directs the

Darden School's executive education course on mergers and

acquisitions, and teaches the popular MBA elective on that topic.

He holds a BA from Yale University, and a MBA and DBA from Harvard

University.0471395064 A comprehensive guide to the world of mergers

and acquisitions 0471395064 A comprehensive guide to the world of

mergers and acquisitions Why do so many MandA transactions fail?

And what drives the success of those deals that are consummated?

Robert Bruner explains that MandA can be understood as a response

by managers to forces of turbulence in their environment. Despite

the material failure rates of mergers and acquisitions, those

pulling the trigger on key strategic decisions can make them work

if they spend great care and rigor in the development of their

MandA deals. By addressing the key factors of MandA success and

failure, Applied Mergers and Acquisitions can help readers do this.

Written by one of the foremost thinkers and educators in the field,

this invaluable resource teaches readers the art and science of

MandA valuation, deal negotiation, and bargaining, and provides a

framework for considering tradeoffs in an effort to optimize the

value of any MandA deal. Applied Mergers and Acquisitions is part

of a complete suite of resources on MandA that includes a workbook

and a CD-ROM with additional spreadsheets. Robert F. Bruner, MBA,

DBA (Charlottesville, VA), is the Distinguished Professor of

Business Administration at the Darden School at the University of

Virginia and Executive Director of the Batten Institute. He directs

the Darden School's executive education course on mergers and

acquisitions, and teaches the popular MBA elective on that topic.

He holds a BA from Yale University, and a MBA and DBA from Harvard

University.

Foreword

Preface

PART ONE: INTRODUCTION AND KEY THEMES

CHAPTER 1: Introduction and Executive Summary "How Can My Team

Do Better Than the Averages?" A Framework for M&A Success

Seven New Big Ideas Worthy of the Best Practitioners

CHAPTER 2: Ethics in M&A Why Should One Care? In Whose

Interests? What Is Good?-Consequences, Duties, Virtues

Promoting Ethical Behavior

Greenmail Case: Walt Disney, 1984

CHAPTER 3: Does M&A Pay? The Measurement of M&A

Profitability: Better Than What? Findings Based on the Analysis of

Returns to Shareholders

Findings Based on the Analysis of Reported Financial

Performance

Findings about the Drivers of Profitability

Findings from Surveys of Executives

Findings from Clinical Studies

PART TWO: STRATEGY AND THE ORIGINATION OF TRANSACTION

PROPOSALS

CHAPTER 4: M&A Activity M&A Activity Appears in

Waves

Explanations of M&A Activity

"Creative Destruction" as the Driver of M&A Activity

The Many Forms of Economic Turbulence, and Where to Look for

It

Turbulence Drives M&A Activities and Opportunities

CHAPTER 5: Cross-Border M&A Cross-Border M&A

Activity

M&A within Regions and Trading Blocs

Drivers of and Returns from Cross-Border M&A

Strategic Analysis of Countries: Getting a "View." CHAPTER 6:

Strategy and the Uses of M&A to Grow or Restructure the Firm

Setting Strategy

Expansion by Inorganic Growth

Restructuring, Redeployment, and Sale

Choosing a Path

Does It Pay to Diversify or Focus the Firm? CHAPTER 7:

Acquisition Search and Deal Origination: Some Guiding Principles

Eight Principles of Acquisition Search

Case Study: Kestrel Ventures LLC

PART THREE: DILLGENCE, VALUATION, AND ACCOUNTING

CHAPTER 8: Due Diligence The Concept of Due Diligence

Principles and Strategies

Timing, Team, and Outputs

The Target's View: The Data Room and Its Pressures

Focus on Knowledge

Excellence in Due Diligence

CHAPTER 9: Valuing Firms Rule #1: Think Like an Investor

Rule #2: Intrinsic Value Is Unobservable; We Can Only Estimate

It

Rule #3: An Opportunity to Create Value Exists Where Price and

Intrinsic Value Differ

Rule #4: So Many Estimators, So Little Time-It Helps to "Have a

View." Rule #5: Exercise Estimators of Intrinsic Value to Find Key

Value Drivers and Bets

Rule #6: Think Critically; Triangulate Carefully

Rule #7: Focus on Process, Not Product

Rule #8: When in Doubt, see Rule #1

Valuation Case: Chrysler Corporation, March 1998

CHAPTER 10: Valuing Options Option Basics

Option Theory

Option Applications

A Practical Guide to Financial Option Valuation, with Some

Important Caveats

CHAPTER 11: Valuing Synergies The Concept of Synergy

Synergy Estimates Must Be a Central Focus of M&A

Analysis

A Framework for Synergy Analysis

Estimating Synergy Value, with Examples

Synergies in the Daimler/Chrysler Merger

Rules of Thumb

CHAPTER 12: Valuing the Firm across Borders How Borders Affect

M&A Valuation

Strategy for DCF Approach: Home versus Foreign Valuation

Adjusting Cash Flows

Estimating the Discount Rate

Recapitulation: Valuation Process with Adjusted CAPM

Valuation Cases across Borders

CHAPTER 13: Valuing the Highly Levered Firm, Assessing the

Highly Levered Transaction The World of Highly Levered Firms

The Effect of Leverage on Firm Value

The "Whole Deal" Approach

A Case in Leveraged Recapitalization: Koppers Company

LBO Case: MediMedia International, Ltd

LBO Case #2: Revco Drug Stores

CHAPTER 14: Real Options and Their Impact on M&A Types of

Real Options

Where Real Options Appear in M&A

Why Not Value Everything as an Option? How to Assess the Impact

of Real Options

Four Mini-Cases in the Analysis of Real Options

CHAPTER 15: Valuing Liquidity and Control Adjusting Values for

Discounts and Premiums

Where Do Illiquidity Discounts Come From? Where Do Control

Premiums Come From? Interaction of Liquidity and Control

Case Study: Volvo/Renault, 1993

CHAPTER 16: Financial Accounting for Mergers and Acquisitions

Overview of Purchase Accounting

How to Interpret Reported Financial Results from a Business

Combination

Linkage among Accounting Choices, Form of Payment, Financing,

and Price

Dangers of Earnings Management

CHAPTER 17: Momentum Acquisition Strategies: An Illustration of

Why Value Creation Is the Best Financial Criterion Four Cautionary

Tales

Momentum Acquisition Strategies

The Arguments for and against Momentum Acquiring

Value Creation Is the Best Criterion for Evaluating Acquisition

Strategies

Momentum versus Value Strategies

PART FOUR: DESIGN OF DETAILED TRANSACTION TERMS

CHAPTER 18: An Introduction to Deal Design in M & A

Deal Structures Are Solutions to Economic Problems

Possible Desirables in Designing a Deal

Design Leads to Results

Each Deal Is a System: The "Whole Deal" Perspective

Some Implications for the Deal Designer

CHAPTER 19: Choosing the Form of Acquisitive Reorganization Five

Key Concerns for the Deal Designer

Deals That Are Immediately Taxable to the Selling

Shareholders

Deals That Defer Tax to the Selling Shareholders

CHAPTER 20: Choosing the Form of Payment and Financing Patterns

and Trends in Form of Payment

Does Form of Payment Matter? Considerations in Selecting the

Form of Payment

Assessing the Financing Aspects of a Deal

CHAPTER 21: Framework for Structuring the Terms of Exchange:

Finding the "Win-Win" Deal A Model for Critically Assessing

Exchange Ratios

Uses and Illustration of the Model

Extension to Cash-for-Stock Deals

Choosing Exchange Ratio Targets in the "Win-Win" Zone

CHAPTER 22: Structuring and Valuing Contingent Payments in

M&A Contingent Payments in M&A

Earnouts Can Be Useful; But If So, Why Aren't They Ubiquitous?

Earnouts Are Options on Future Performance

Structuring an Earnout

Tax and Accounting Considerations

A Generic Approach to Valuing Earnout Instruments

The Eli Lilly Case

Proposing and Negotiating an Earnout and Other Contingent

Payments

CHAPTER 23: Risk Management in M&A Value at Risk When a Deal

Fails

Transaction Risk: Types and Sources

Types of Risk Management

Collars and Their Analysis

Contingent Value Rights Case

Staged Acquiring Case

Where and When to Manage Risk

CHAPTER 24: Social Issues The Importance of Social Issues in

M&A

Survey of Social Issues

Impact of Social Issues on Attractiveness of the Deal

Case Studies in the Role of Social Issues

PART FIVE: RULES OF THE ROAD: GOVERNANCE, LAWS, AND

REGULATIONS

CHAPTER 25: How a Negotiated Deal Takes Place The Deal Shaping

Process

Risks: How the Process Can Get Derailed

Transaction Planning and Preparation

Initiating Discussions

First-Round Documents

The Definitive Agreement

Disclosures to Investors and Regulators

Gaining Approval

Case Study: Daimler-Benz and Chrysler

CHAPTER 26: Governance in M&A: The Board of Directors and

Shareholder Voting Governing Well Is Hard to Do

Good Governance Pays

How Shareholders Rule

Fiduciary Duties of Target Directors in Considering M&A

Preparing for the Board's Review of a Deal

How Can Firms Be Governed Better? CHAPTER 27: Rules of the Road:

Securities Law, Issuance Process, Disclosure, and Insider Trading

Overview of Key Securities Laws and Rules

International Law Comparison

Disclosures

Insider Trading

Observance of Deal Process

CHAPTER 28: Rules of the Road: Antitrust Law Antitrust Law:

History and Motives

How Antitrust Regulators and Laws Affect M&A

U.S

Antitrust Merger Guidelines

Premerger Review Process in the United States

Antitrust Regulation of M&A in the European Union

Critical Perspectives on Antitrust Policy

CHAPTER 29: Documenting the M&A Deal First-Round

Documents

Definitive Agreement

Merger Proxy Statement and Prospectus

PART SIX: COMPETITION, HOSTILITY, AND BEHAVIORAL EFFECTS IN

M&A

CHAPTER 30: Negotiating the Deal The Relevance of Negotiation

Process

Behavioral Finance

Influencing Bargaining Outcomes: An Overview of the

Challenge

How to Prepare for a Negotiation

Managing the Negotiation Process Proactively

CHAPTER 31: Auctions in M&A Auction Structures and

Motives

Advantages and Disadvantages of Auctions

Auctions in Practice: The Case of RJR Nabisco

The "Winner's Curse" in M&A: Is It Real? Some Practical

Advice to Sellers in Auctions

CHAPTER 32: Hostile Takeovers: Preparing a Bid in Light of

Competition and Arbitrage Takeovers Are Games

A Profile of Hostile Takeovers

Beware of the Players, Both on the Field and Off

The Arb Is the Consummate Economic Actor

Interpreting Arbitrage Spreads

The Arb Assesses a Recapitalization Proposal in Terms of Blended

Value

Government Constraints on the Game

Selling Shareholders Face a Prisoner's Dilemma

To Set a Bid Price: Think Like an Investor

The Game Has Implications for Design and Defense of

Takeovers

CHAPTER 33: Takeover Attack and Defense The Prevalence of

Antitakeover Defenses

Profile of the Target of a Hostile Bid

Optionality in Takeover Attack and Defense

Tactics of Takeover Attack

Tactics of Takeover Defense

Implications for the Practitioner

CHAPTER 34: The Leveraged Restructuring as a Takeover Defense:

The Case of American Standard The American Standard Case

The Response

Of Parachutes, Pills, and Litigation

Restructuring Defenses

When Does a Restructuring Make Sense? PART SEVEN: Communication,

Integration, and Best Practice

CHAPTER 35: Communicating the Deal: Gaining Mandates, Approvals,

and Support Core Challenges to Effective Communication

Some Guiding Principles for Communicating the Deal

Presenting the "Concept Proposal." Communicating the Deal to the

Board for Approval

Communicating with Employees

Announcing the Deal to the Public

CHAPTER 36: Framework for Postmerger Integration Integration

Strategy

Implementation of Integration Strategy

The Case of Union Bank of Switzerland and Swiss Bank

Corporation

Integration as Transformation

CHAPTER 37: Corporate Development as a Strategic Capability: The

Approach of GE Power Systems Business Development at GE Power

Systems

Deal Process at GE Power Systems

The M&A "Factory": Operationalizing Business Development

Implications for Best Practice

CHAPTER 38: M&A "Best Practices": Some Lessons and Next

Steps Some Elements of M&A Best Practice

Where the Sidewalk Ends

Developing Best Practitioners

The End of It All

About the CD-ROM

Ref...

　　ROBERT F. BRUNER is the Distinguished Professor of Business

Administration at the Darden School of the University of Virginia

and Executive Director of the Batten Institute. He directs the

Darden School's executive education course on mergers and

acquisitions, and teaches the popular MBA elective on that topic.

He is the author of over 250 case studies and a casebook, Case

Studies in Finance: Managing for Corporate Value Creation, which

has been adopted for use at over 200 schools. Bruner's articles

have been published in the Journal of Financial Economics, the

Journal of Accounting and Economics, the Journal of Financial and

Quantitative Analysis, the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,

and Financial Management. He has served as a consultant to over

twenty corporations as well as to the U.S. Government, and prior to

his academic career, worked as a commercial banker and venture

capitalist. Bruner holds a BA from Yale University, and an MBA and

DBA from Harvard University.

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书籍介绍

A comprehensive guide to the world of mergers and acquisitions Why do so many MandA transactions fail? And what drives the success of those deals that are consummated? Robert Bruner explains that MandA can be understood as a response by managers to forces of turbulence in their environment. Despite the material failure rates of mergers and acquisitions, those pulling the trigger on key strategic decisions can make them work if they spend great care and rigor in the development of their MandA deals. By addressing the key factors of MandA success and failure, Applied Mergers and Acquisitions can help readers do this. Written by one of the foremost thinkers and educators in the field, this invaluable resource teaches readers the art and science of MandA valuation, deal negotiation, and bargaining, and provides a framework for considering tradeoffs in an effort to optimize the value of any MandA deal. Applied Mergers and Acquisitions is part of a complete suite of resources on MandA that includes a workbook and a CD-ROM with additional spreadsheets. Robert F. Bruner, MBA, DBA (Charlottesville, VA), is the Distinguished Professor of Business Administration at the Darden School at the University of Virginia and Executive Director of the Batten Institute. He directs the Darden School's executive education course on mergers and acquisitions, and teaches the popular MBA elective on that topic. He holds a BA from Yale University, and a MBA and DBA from Harvard University.0471395064 A comprehensive guide to the world of mergers and acquisitions 0471395064 A comprehensive guide to the world of mergers and acquisitions Why do so many MandA transactions fail? And what drives the success of those deals that are consummated? Robert Bruner explains that MandA can be understood as a response by managers to forces of turbulence in their environment. Despite the material failure rates of mergers and acquisitions, those pulling the trigger on key strategic decisions can make them work if they spend great care and rigor in the development of their MandA deals. By addressing the key factors of MandA success and failure, Applied Mergers and Acquisitions can help readers do this. Written by one of the foremost thinkers and educators in the field, this invaluable resource teaches readers the art and science of MandA valuation, deal negotiation, and bargaining, and provides a framework for considering tradeoffs in an effort to optimize the value of any MandA deal. Applied Mergers and Acquisitions is part of a complete suite of resources on MandA that includes a workbook and a CD-ROM with additional spreadsheets. Robert F. Bruner, MBA, DBA (Charlottesville, VA), is the Distinguished Professor of Business Administration at the Darden School at the University of Virginia and Executive Director of the Batten Institute. He directs the Darden School's executive education course on mergers and acquisitions, and teaches the popular MBA elective on that topic. He holds a BA from Yale University, and a MBA and DBA from Harvard University.

• 作者：晒黑的北极熊6 发布时间：2017-05-02 18:05:03

  UNSW FINS5538 教材 大而杂的一本书

• 作者：yanxiao1st 发布时间：2022-10-13 21:34:19

  感觉没有很好的故事，也没很诱人的食物，鸡翅都没能画得很诱人。

• 作者：Mr.Choupi 发布时间：2009-08-25 00:51:42

  well designed and easy to grasp

• 作者：滚滚爸 发布时间：2014-10-08 20:24:01

  虽然奉为经典，但还academic research东西多点

• 作者：星空☆Picnic 发布时间：2018-09-02 19:47:16

  我觉得这本书理论性和实操性兼具，真是相当完美了！讲并购的书里首推！

• 作者：讲究人 发布时间：2023-03-12 18:39:53

  比较轻松的小说，没有大起大落，一个技巧成熟的作家还愿似的写作。但是，看过《心居》再回来看就会觉得，一丝异样可能不是没来由，是价值观的问题，上海的几位作家的共性，无关家国情怀，没有民间疾苦，笔下一个个大时代下精致的个体，你很难说她不对，只能说写得真不错。

• 序言

  作者：图灵新知 发布时间：2022-04-25 15:59:32

  1968年2月，我于《日本经济新闻》连载了《我的简历》，本书便是以《我的简历》为基础写成的。《我的简历》是面向一般读者的专栏，所以我在写作中以最小限度提及了自己的老本行——数学，毕竟专业的数学知识会使人看得一头雾水。

  为什么我一门心思研究数学，并成了一名数学家呢？回过头来看，归根结底还是因为我只会数学。

  我母亲说，我自小就对数感兴趣，总是数豆子玩儿。上小学以后，虽然算术很好，但其他科目完全不行，所以当时的我是个“悲惨的小学生”，非常讨厌上学。上中学以后还是一样，数学以外的所有科目都不好，英语、日语和汉文很差，特别是历史和地理这种需要死记硬背的科目，就更糟糕了，当时的我仍然是个“悲惨的中学生”。因为喜欢数学，所以我从中学三年级开始阅读专业的数学书，不过学习数学单纯出于兴趣，并非为了成为一名数学家。那时我也不知道世界上还有一种职业叫数学家，他们的工作是撰写数学论文。中学时期的我立志成为一名工程师。中学五年级的时候，我报考了第一高等学校。

  在当时，旧制高等学校的入学考试是一大难关，相当于现在的高考，一高入学考试的竞争率高达8∶1到9∶1。当然，那时也有以应试为目的的培训班，不过与现在不同，入学考试不受偏差值限制，所以只要想考，任何人都可以申请参加一高的入学考试。如果当时的招考模式像现在一样，恐怕只会数学的我在偏差值这一关就完全丧失资格了吧！

  进入一高以后，我发现老师们的生活看起来悠闲自在，那时的我又想成为一名高中教师。考入东京大学数学系后，我依然纯粹地觉得数学有趣而继续学习，仅此而已。从数学系毕业后，我想着再学点儿物理知识，就又进入了物理系学习。

  从物理系毕业后第二年的秋天，我担任东京文理科大学的助理教授，几年后又担任东京大学物理系的助理教授，并继续兼任东京文理科大学的助理教授。不过，那时我还没有确定自己的研究方向，凭着兴趣阅读数学和理论物理相关的书籍和论文，想到什么有趣的事情就写论文，仅此而已。在担任助理教授后，经济上也比较充裕，所以我平时也就学习数学和理论物理的知识，写写论文，或者听唱片、弹钢琴，并打算就这样在日本愉快地度过此生。

  然而，我心中的这个美好幻想被战争撕得粉碎。家、唱片和钢琴在战火中化为灰烬，战后我只能居住在废墟中临时重建的木板房里，食不果腹。别说愉快地生活，那段时期我简直陷入了悲惨生活的深渊。

  战争爆发后，国外的文献当然也没法传入日本，所以无从得知当时国外正在进行什么样的研究。即便写了论文，也许观点早已在国外得到证实而变得毫无价值。再者，随着空袭越发厉害，日本国内的专业学术期刊也难以发行，所以就算写出了论文也找不到发表的门路。尽管如此，我还是一直坚持写论文。现在回想起来，也想不明白在那种极端状况下，自己到底处于一种什么样的心理状态。当时的人们丝毫看不到战争要结束的征兆，更不清楚自己能否活到战后，也无从得知战后正常的日子是否真的会来临。在如此迷茫的状态下，当时的我写论文的目的又是什么呢？简直不可思议。

  我从战时到战后写了一篇长论文，题为《黎曼流形上的调和张量场》，不过当时在日本丝毫没有可以发表论文的迹象，所以不了了之了。到了1948年，在角谷静夫的帮助下，论文投稿至美国的学术期刊。这篇论文引起了赫尔曼·外尔（Hermann Weyl）教授的注意，他于1949年邀请我去普林斯顿高等研究院任职。

  在20世纪50年代，复流形理论和代数几何学飞速发展，其中一个研究中心便是普林斯顿。到了普林斯顿后我发现，我那篇出于兴趣撰写却一直发表无门的调和张量场论文，碰巧有助于推动复流形理论和代数几何学的发展。同时我也认识到自己是一名数学家，并且已经参与到复流形理论和代数几何学研究的第一线。那年，我34岁。

  因为有幸邂逅了非常出色的合作伙伴斯宾塞（D. C. Spencer），我的研究工作也顺利步入正轨。1954年9月，在荷兰阿姆斯特丹举行的国际数学家大会上，我获得了菲尔兹奖。之后，我继续在美国生活，直到1967年8月，时隔18年，我又回到了日本。我曾经打算在日本愉快地度过此生，不曾想后面发生了这么多做梦也想不到的事。

  我偶尔会怀疑在美国的那段时光是不是梦境，但每当听到女儿们操着熟练的英语和生疏的日语时，又清醒地知道这绝非梦境，而是事实。而且在美国的时候，每当和我太太一起去超市购物，只要一会儿不见她的身影，我也时常会惊讶于自己为何独自在此，难不成又陷入梦境了吗？

  如果我没写那篇发表无门的调和张量场论文，或者即使我写了这篇论文，如果没有角谷帮助投稿到美国，普林斯顿的邀请也就与我无缘。或者即便去了普林斯顿，如果我没遇到斯宾塞，我也不会顺利地从事这方面的研究。斯宾塞在1942年以后就一直在斯坦福大学担任教授，恰巧我去普林斯顿的那年，也就是1949年，他也调到了普林斯顿大学。如此看来，我与斯宾塞的邂逅也是一种巧合。

  数学研究不过是用大脑去思考，所以总会让我感觉是自己主观把控着整个研究过程，不过回过头来才发现，归根结底还是被命运所左右。

  我在命运的安排下踏上了探索数学世界的旅程，信手将旅途中发生的故事记录在本书中。

  小平邦彦

  写于中落合

• 《汉光武帝大传》：一部优点与缺点并存且明显的历史传记

  作者：一蓑烟雨 发布时间：2022-07-31 23:22:38

  

  读完随拍

  首先，该书一本传记，又是一部合著，其中的两位作者分别是安作璋和孟祥才。前者自不待言，是年前所读一版秦汉史的主编之一，其与该部书另一主编田昌五先生同是在秦汉研究领域深耕多年的前辈大家；后者则同样参与过上述一版秦汉史的撰写，而据其弟子范学辉的豆瓣怀念小组成员分享，据范老师在一篇对其的回忆文章所说，其似乎最初是研究近代史的，甚至其间还写过一本《梁启超评传》，而后才真正步入秦汉领域的研究当中，成果也算颇丰，故而这便成了范学辉称其为“天才”的原因之一。另外，还是从这篇文章里得知，孟祥才原来就是哲学思想史家侯外庐的弟子。

  

  

  版权及内页，虽然有些旧，却竟是一版一印

  不过即便如此，我想就本书而言，优点和缺点都是比较明显的。先说优点，一是资料详尽。读完该书能使读者刘秀其人一生的方方面面、及其所处的时代都能够有一个清晰而全面的认识；二是论述到位。每当介绍完一个重大的事件后，都会引用一些历代史家对其所做的史评或史论，然后超脱出来，再对其做一番论述，读之常常会让人有一种豁然开朗的感觉。在这里，我想顺便梳理一下近期所看邓小南在其负责的中国古代史有关部分中对史评和史论的介绍。史评好理解，即是对历史所发出的评论。那史论是什么？大体分为两种：一种是对具体历史事件的议论，这是其最初含义；另一种则是自所谓“三通”之一唐代杜佑的《通典》开始，对于历史纵观的研究方式，故这里的“论”即理论。因此上面所说的论只是前一种；三是在这样的内容中亦有很多严密的考究，展现了作者自身的史学风范与功底。如在介绍刘秀早年的情况时，便指出就是因为刘秀与当时西汉皇室血统较远，故王莽代汉时，他与他的家族几乎未受其影响，就连山东吕母起义时，他还在洛阳为太学生。不过，作者推论，刘秀叔父之后挂冠归家，多半也是由于其血统而当王莽代汉之时的缘故。

  与此同时，本书缺点也是非常显而易见的。大体有两点，一是其中有非常强烈而浓厚的唯物史观，如封建与迷信、阶级与斗争，地主与奴隶等这一类带有明显时代特色的字词使用在本书中即处处可见，可谓层出不穷；二是在叙述中，能明显感觉到作者对传主刘秀的偏爱。不过这一点是在所难免的，作为一部历史传记也是应该的，何况这一点也是能够被本书所用详尽的史料给抵消的，因为以此读者就可以抛开作者的一些观念，从而了解和认识到一个更真实的刘秀形象。

  如在前言中，作者便将刘秀与王莽作对比，据其所说，一个除血统之外别无他物，最终成为赢家，一个则是最初众望所归，后来君临天下，然而就是这样的人，最终却输得一败涂地，甚至死无葬身之地。这样来看，的确起初匪夷所思，仔细想想发人深思，之间的关键便是时代潮流，而此潮流又与民心民意密不可分。王莽之上台，除了其利用了由来已久的谶纬思想，但其背后仍是民心所向，但之后当王莽推行种种多变、对民众变相的巧取豪夺的政策时，又是因为民心所向，导致了其在这一过程中进退失据，进而与他的所谓理想一同走向万劫不复的深渊。相反，刘秀尽管在天下风起云涌时才跟随其兄刘縯加入绿林，进而投身到反莽的时代潮流中，却因其在军事和政治上的种种优点，还有在其兄刘縯于刘秀初露锋芒之杰作昆阳之战后被更始借故冤杀，仍然不动声色地在其麾下兢兢业业，然后在刘赐无意的帮助下，其趁机到河北而逐渐脱离更始的控制，真正开始了创业，这一比之祖先刘邦更能忍的特点，等等，都使他从中脱颖而出，最终成为最后的赢家。

  在之后的群雄逐鹿中，可与刘秀相比的，甚至比其起点更高的，我想还有两人，一是由绿林扶立的更始帝刘玄，另一个则是被后来赤眉军扶立的刘盆子，但两人都因自身的缘故而最终失败。据记载可知，一个是面对群臣下拜时汗流浃背，唯唯诺诺，一个则是即位之时又哭又闹，不成体统。反观刘秀便高下立判。看来，促使一个人成功的，除了时代，个人原因也是至关重要的。事实上，据作者对绿林军之所以失败而列出的三点主要原因中，除了内部有矛盾也就是自身问题外，还有两点都是重要决策上所出现的重大错误，一是拥戴刘氏宗亲是对的，但具体的人却弄错了，立了刘玄而非刘秀，二是忽视了赤眉军的重要性及对自身的威胁性。反观刘秀，虽然在具体战术中也不乏错误，如其在创业过程中，或多或少地导致了一些将领的反叛，还有在统一前后对西域主动请求通好的忽视，这一被本书作者称之为其在外交上最大的错误，甚至为后来西域三绝三通的不稳定性埋下隐患，但总的来说，其在整体战略上，则是正确的。

  就我而言，本书最大价值是对刘秀在公元36年前的创业有了个梳理，为此我还依据所记内容，做了一个简略的刘秀在收赤眉、铜马之后遇到的主要对手简表。至于刘秀借一种符的出现而正式称帝，扫平天下后的为政举措，我想对后世影响最大的，便是在人事上退功臣，进文吏，既保全了功臣，又为之后的统治定下了基调，还有将与之前职责不同的三公去大，而随即又将尚书台从管理皇室事物的少府独立出来，形成了名在三公，事在台阁的局面，为后来隋唐三省六部之建立又走了一大步。

  

  好了，由于时间原因，暂时就说这么多吧。之所以不在明天再说一些更多想说的，则完全是因我已经迫不及待想读下一本同样是从图书馆借来的《陈寅恪的最后二十年》，这是一本名著，我也早有耳闻，借来之后，亦几经翻阅，发现真是名不虚传，不仅叙述优美，而且提供了不少一手材料，是了解陈寅恪其人及其思想、还有学术成就不可不读的著作，因而我不想为写这篇文字而浪费阅读那本书的时间。故此，暂且搁笔吧。总之，对于——公元22年加入农民起义军、25年称帝、36年扫平天下、56年封禅完成后的第二年二月初五即离世——刘秀这一波澜壮阔的人生，尤其是他在扫平天下后的为政举措，我想自身对其的认识，还需要日后用更多的相关著作来添补了。