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The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event.In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.

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书籍介绍

The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event.In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.

• 作者：古籍萌主 发布时间：2012-09-28 08:50:41

  很多地名考证终究觉得不靠谱。。。。

• 作者：羚羊 发布时间：2015-09-26 18:22:09

  “当大街上的擦鞋童都在讨论要崩盘的股市与经济，那么这个国家离泡沫经济就不远了”，这是要步后尘吗

• 作者：番茄籽儿™ 发布时间：2010-05-18 15:39:28

  没给五颗星是因为没看完。

• 作者：王荣欣 发布时间：2021-12-31 17:28:34

  两篇不相干的论文拼凑成一本书。本书论证荷兰郁金香狂热并不存在，只是市场基本面的正常反映。

• 作者：SK_XT 发布时间：2022-11-11 13:25:34

  没啥意思，随便翻了下

• 作者：出岫小饼 发布时间：2013-03-29 23:30:37

  还差一点读完，应该可以在今晚睡前读完吧。两个学期以来第一次一天看完一本书，总算有点静下心来自己想问题的感觉。期末考试之前争取再刷一本书。/对于郁金香狂潮，作者给出了一个十分合理并且严谨的解释，有些许颠覆以往人们的认识。但或许是我没有完全读懂，或许是我对于违反人们一贯历史认识的言论总是有哗众取宠的担心，或许是我对那段历史太不了解，我总是觉得这些证据太过完美了。既然有如此完美的证据，为什么200多年来没有人对郁金香狂潮这个名词提出质疑？既然郁金香价格向来如此，为何在1634-1637年的价格浮动会被认为是狂潮？还有就是common bulb的价格，就像书中P79所说的一样，是一个facet。#我简直就是思而不学的典型#

• 读书笔记2117：巴比特

  作者：阿拉雷 发布时间：2023-09-23 21:18:38

  经过29年的沉寂，20世纪世界文学的霸主终于登场，开启了美国文学的霸者之路，1930年瑞典的评委们把奖项颁给了他们的美国老乡辛克莱·刘易斯，随着时间的推移，他的作品似乎没能经得住时间的考验，逐渐被读者所遗忘，而同时期的马克吐温，杰克伦敦，菲茨杰拉德却始终在美国文学中占有牢不可破的位置，其他具有竞争力的还有德莱塞，沃尔夫等人。美国是个移民国家，原住民被杀戮殆尽，即便是最早过去的殖民者也不过两三百年的历史，从30年开始，到2022年，又有十二位作家获奖，其中赛珍珠曾是中国国籍，贝娄是加拿大犹太人，辛格是波兰犹太人，米沃什是波兰人，布罗茨基来着苏联，死后遗物回到圣彼得堡，实际真正创作美国本土文学的作家并不多，最典型的代表莫过于那位乡间老农福克纳了。

  巴比特的阅读体验并不咋滴，自从读完罗曼罗兰，我读什么书都提不起劲来，但是他笔下美国实用主义的商业社会直至今天依然适用，巴比特作为小资产阶级的代表他所走过的路，一直被反复又反复，阶层固化，他无法往上更进一步，同时自身的利益又让他无法同情底层，一旦他试图那么做，他就会被阶层所抛弃。

  开篇刘易斯把商业社会充斥的物欲描写的淋漓尽致，所有的社会活动都是被商业所服务，包括政治和宗教，都是有价码，可以商量的，实用主义是美国的国教。但是精神上的空虚是物质无法满足的，巴比特之前有个小弟，两个人可以报团取暖，但是当他因为夫妻矛盾，枪击老婆入狱三年后，巴比特就如脱缰野马，再也无法控制中年男人躁动的心了，搞外遇，混迹底层，在圈里里看来他的言行发生了可怕的变化，于是标榜自由的国度，用行动告诉巴比特什么是自由。他只能乖乖就范，他舍不得原有的圈子和生活，回到以前的轨道，把希望寄托在儿子身上。路易斯的著作，上译出过大街和王孙梦，人文社的新网格本出了他的大街。总得来说，他没有被遗忘，但是热度一般。

• 没有新意

  作者：夕饮冰 发布时间：2008-08-25 20:08:52